Medvedev S.B.
MedvedevSB@kharampurneftegaz.ru
Graduated from Siberian Federal University (2007), specialization "Mining Engineering".Head of the Department of Kharampurneftegaz LLC, Tyumen.
Area of scientific interests: optimization of drilling processes, geological and geophysical research.
Geological simulation and issues of petroleum fields development
| Article # 14_2026 | submitted on 03/27/2026 displayed on website on 05/22/2026 |
| 27 p. | Lebedev M.V., Novokreschin A.V., Shamkina K.P., Medvedev S.B. |
| Assessing the reliability of forecasts of productive units filtration and capacity properties based on seismic data | |
| Assessing the reliability of seismic forecasts of reservoir filtration and capacity properties is a pressing problem of great practical importance, yet its theoretical foundations remain insufficiently developed. The objective of this research is to obtain an estimate based on a geostatistical approach to seismic data interpretation. The authors propose a new definition of the "degree of reliability of a seismic forecast" defined as the probability of the actual value of a geological parameter falling within a predetermined forecast corridor. Using the geostatistical approach, a probability density function with a mathematical expectation is derived for each point in the study area. The obtained results are experimentally verifiable, allowing for the construction of a probability function for the number of successful test wells and the determination of its quantiles, such as P90, P50, and P10. If the actual number of successful test wells falls within the P90-P10 range, the reliability assessment is considered correct. The methodology is discussed using the example of forecasting the effective thickness of a productive units at a well-studied field in Western Siberia. Keywords: seismic forecast reliability assessment, reservoir filtration and capacity properties, geostatistical approach, productive unit, Western Siberia. |
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| article citation | Lebedev M.V., Novokreschin A.V., Shamkina K.P., Medvedev S.B. Assessing the reliability of forecasts of productive units filtration and capacity properties based on seismic data. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2026, vol. 21, no. 2, available at: https://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2026/14_2026.html EDN: MVTPMN |
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Novokreschin A.V. Algorithms of structural modeling based on statistical models from well and seismic data. Abstract of the dissertation for the degree of Candidate of technical sciences. Novosibirsk, 2008, 21 p.(In Russ.). EDN: NQDLDD
Pinchuk A.V., Pylyev E.A., Polyakov, E.E. Tvorogov M.A., Churikova I.V. Optimization of well‑cluster drilling at the Chayanda oil-gas condensate field based on joint analysis of seismic attributes and GIS using neural‑network algorithms. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 2022, no. 2, pp. 17-30. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31087/0016-7894-2022-2-17-30
Potapov D.V., Efremova E.I. Analysis of geological risks at the stage of reserves assessment in order to increase the asset development efficiency. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2023, vol. 18, no. 1, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2023/2_2023.html (In Russ.). EDN: GUATEE
Priezzhev I.I., Egorov S.V., Schelkunov A.E. Quantitative forecast of maps of effective parameters of oil and gas productivity using seismic data with the help of deep neural networks. Geofizika, 2017, no. 6, pp. 2-9. (In Russ.).EDN: YQTZOY
Putilov I.S., Seletkov I. A., Ladeyschikov S.V. New approaches to processing and interpreting of seismic data on the example of one of the oilfield of Arkhangelsk region. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2021, no. 2(350), pp. 31-37. (In Russ.).DOI: 10.33285/2413-5011-2021-2(350)-31-37
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