Lebedev M.V.
mvlebedev2@rn-gir.rosneft.ru
Graduated from Novosibirsk State University named after Lenin Komsomol (1985), specialization "Geochemistry".
PhD in Geology and Mineralogy.
Expert of RN-Geology Research and Development LLC, Tyumen.
Area of scientific interests: sequence stratigraphy, facies modeling, and resource estimation using probabilistic methods.
Author of 64 publications.
Geological simulation and issues of petroleum fields development
| Article # 14_2026 | submitted on 03/27/2026 displayed on website on 05/22/2026 |
| 27 p. | Lebedev M.V., Novokreschin A.V., Shamkina K.P., Medvedev S.B. |
| Assessing the reliability of forecasts of productive units filtration and capacity properties based on seismic data | |
| Assessing the reliability of seismic forecasts of reservoir filtration and capacity properties is a pressing problem of great practical importance, yet its theoretical foundations remain insufficiently developed. The objective of this research is to obtain an estimate based on a geostatistical approach to seismic data interpretation. The authors propose a new definition of the "degree of reliability of a seismic forecast" defined as the probability of the actual value of a geological parameter falling within a predetermined forecast corridor. Using the geostatistical approach, a probability density function with a mathematical expectation is derived for each point in the study area. The obtained results are experimentally verifiable, allowing for the construction of a probability function for the number of successful test wells and the determination of its quantiles, such as P90, P50, and P10. If the actual number of successful test wells falls within the P90-P10 range, the reliability assessment is considered correct. The methodology is discussed using the example of forecasting the effective thickness of a productive units at a well-studied field in Western Siberia. Keywords: seismic forecast reliability assessment, reservoir filtration and capacity properties, geostatistical approach, productive unit, Western Siberia. |
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| article citation | Lebedev M.V., Novokreschin A.V., Shamkina K.P., Medvedev S.B. Assessing the reliability of forecasts of productive units filtration and capacity properties based on seismic data. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2026, vol. 21, no. 2, available at: https://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2026/14_2026.html EDN: MVTPMN |
References
Bezkhodarnov V.V. Forecasting reservoir properties of rocks based on seismic survey data using multivariate statistical analysis. Oil Business, 2006, no. 8, pp. 34-37. (In Russ.). EDN: JWLKPR
Dem'yanov V.V., Savel'yeva E.A. Geostatistics: Theory and Practice. Moscow: Nauka, 2010, 327 p. (In Russ.). EDN:YLEGPR
Dyubrul O. Using geostatistics for incorporating seismic data into geological models. Zeist: EAGE, 2002, 296 p. (In Russ.).
Egorov S.V., Priezzhev I.I. Seismogeological modeling in order to determine the influence of the completeness of initial information and geological conditions on the result of forecast of poro-perm reservoirs properties. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2020, vol. 15, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2020/14_2020.html (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17353/2070-5379/14_2020
Il'ichev N. M. On the question of the reliability of knowledge. Bulletin of Tambov University. Series: Humanities, 1996, no. 2(2), pp. 18-23. (In Russ.). EDN:NUWYZP
Lavrik A.S., Fedotov M.N., Kuznetsova L.S., Petrova S.M., Isakov D.V. Forecasting reservoir properties of Neocomian strata using neural‑network modeling methods. Nedropol'zovaniye XXI vek, 2007, no. 4, pp. 24-27. (In Russ.).KXCDWT
Levyant V.B., Ampilov Yu.P., Glogovskiy V.M., Kolesov V.V., Korostyshevskiy M.B., Ptetsov S.N. Methodological recommendations for using seismic survey data (2D, 3D) for estimating oil and gas reserves. Moscow: CGE, 2006, 39 p. (In Russ.).
Novokreschin A.V. Algorithms of structural modeling based on statistical models from well and seismic data. Abstract of the dissertation for the degree of Candidate of technical sciences. Novosibirsk, 2008, 21 p.(In Russ.). EDN: NQDLDD
Pinchuk A.V., Pylyev E.A., Polyakov, E.E. Tvorogov M.A., Churikova I.V. Optimization of well‑cluster drilling at the Chayanda oil-gas condensate field based on joint analysis of seismic attributes and GIS using neural‑network algorithms. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 2022, no. 2, pp. 17-30. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31087/0016-7894-2022-2-17-30
Potapov D.V., Efremova E.I. Analysis of geological risks at the stage of reserves assessment in order to increase the asset development efficiency. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2023, vol. 18, no. 1, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2023/2_2023.html (In Russ.). EDN: GUATEE
Priezzhev I.I., Egorov S.V., Schelkunov A.E. Quantitative forecast of maps of effective parameters of oil and gas productivity using seismic data with the help of deep neural networks. Geofizika, 2017, no. 6, pp. 2-9. (In Russ.).EDN: YQTZOY
Putilov I.S., Seletkov I. A., Ladeyschikov S.V. New approaches to processing and interpreting of seismic data on the example of one of the oilfield of Arkhangelsk region. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2021, no. 2(350), pp. 31-37. (In Russ.).DOI: 10.33285/2413-5011-2021-2(350)-31-37
Sysoyev A.P., Novokreshchin A.V. Statistical interpretation models based on the combination of seismic and well data. Geofizika, 2001, no. 1, pp. 31-41. (In Russ.). EDN:VCLRGH
Dem'yanov V.V., Savel'yeva E.A. Geostatistics: Theory and Practice. Moscow: Nauka, 2010, 327 p. (In Russ.). EDN:YLEGPR
Dyubrul O. Using geostatistics for incorporating seismic data into geological models. Zeist: EAGE, 2002, 296 p. (In Russ.).
Egorov S.V., Priezzhev I.I. Seismogeological modeling in order to determine the influence of the completeness of initial information and geological conditions on the result of forecast of poro-perm reservoirs properties. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2020, vol. 15, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2020/14_2020.html (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17353/2070-5379/14_2020
Il'ichev N. M. On the question of the reliability of knowledge. Bulletin of Tambov University. Series: Humanities, 1996, no. 2(2), pp. 18-23. (In Russ.). EDN:NUWYZP
Lavrik A.S., Fedotov M.N., Kuznetsova L.S., Petrova S.M., Isakov D.V. Forecasting reservoir properties of Neocomian strata using neural‑network modeling methods. Nedropol'zovaniye XXI vek, 2007, no. 4, pp. 24-27. (In Russ.).KXCDWT
Levyant V.B., Ampilov Yu.P., Glogovskiy V.M., Kolesov V.V., Korostyshevskiy M.B., Ptetsov S.N. Methodological recommendations for using seismic survey data (2D, 3D) for estimating oil and gas reserves. Moscow: CGE, 2006, 39 p. (In Russ.).
Novokreschin A.V. Algorithms of structural modeling based on statistical models from well and seismic data. Abstract of the dissertation for the degree of Candidate of technical sciences. Novosibirsk, 2008, 21 p.(In Russ.). EDN: NQDLDD
Pinchuk A.V., Pylyev E.A., Polyakov, E.E. Tvorogov M.A., Churikova I.V. Optimization of well‑cluster drilling at the Chayanda oil-gas condensate field based on joint analysis of seismic attributes and GIS using neural‑network algorithms. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 2022, no. 2, pp. 17-30. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31087/0016-7894-2022-2-17-30
Potapov D.V., Efremova E.I. Analysis of geological risks at the stage of reserves assessment in order to increase the asset development efficiency. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2023, vol. 18, no. 1, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2023/2_2023.html (In Russ.). EDN: GUATEE
Priezzhev I.I., Egorov S.V., Schelkunov A.E. Quantitative forecast of maps of effective parameters of oil and gas productivity using seismic data with the help of deep neural networks. Geofizika, 2017, no. 6, pp. 2-9. (In Russ.).EDN: YQTZOY
Putilov I.S., Seletkov I. A., Ladeyschikov S.V. New approaches to processing and interpreting of seismic data on the example of one of the oilfield of Arkhangelsk region. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2021, no. 2(350), pp. 31-37. (In Russ.).DOI: 10.33285/2413-5011-2021-2(350)-31-37
Sysoyev A.P., Novokreshchin A.V. Statistical interpretation models based on the combination of seismic and well data. Geofizika, 2001, no. 1, pp. 31-41. (In Russ.). EDN:VCLRGH
Geological simulation and issues of petroleum fields development
| Article # 38_2025 | submitted on 07/31/2025 displayed on website on 10/09/2025 |
| 14 p. | Glukhov T.V., Lebedev M.V. |
| Assessing the probability of a gas accumulation in the Upper Cretaceous NB1 reservoir unit in the Nadym-Pur-Taz area | |
| This paper study the existing probability of a gas accumulations in the Upper Cretaceous NB1 reservoir unit in the Nadym-Pur-Taz area of Western Siberia. The objective assessment of the probability of gas accumulation existing in the NB1 reservoir unit was addressed using a methodological approach based on stochastic modeling of reservoir parameters using their critical values. The key factors controlling the existence of gas accumulation in the NB1 reservoir unit are analyzed. It is concluded that the primary critical factor is the presence of an effective reservoir with a pore structure that does not impede gas accumulation and filtration. Keywords: gas accumulation, NB1 reservoir unit, Upper Cretaceous, stochastic modeling of reservoir parameters, reservoir probability, Nadym-Pur-Taz area, Western Siberia. |
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| article citation | Glukhov T.V., Lebedev M.V. Otsenka veroyatnosti sushchestvovaniya zalezhey gaza v plaste NB1 verkhnego mela Nadym-Pur-Tazovskogo regiona [Assessing the probability of a gas accumulation in the Upper Cretaceous NB1 reservoir unit in the Nadym-Pur-Taz area]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2025, vol. 20, no. 4, available at: https://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2025/38_2025.html EDN: TJSVYQ |
References
Berezovskaya svita Zapadnoy Sibiri: geologiya i gazonosnost' [The Berezov Formation of Western Siberia: geology and gas productivity]. S.E. Agalakov, M.A. Aleksandrov, N.N. Arzhilovskaya, O.V. Bakuev, A.O. Gordeev, Ya.I. Gil'manov, T.V. Glukhov, N.P. Devyatka, L.R. Distanova, S.A. Zanochuev, A.A. Kalabin, T.M. Karikh, E.S. Klimova, A.I. Kudamanov, O.V. Kudryashova, A.A. Kuzovkov, O.A. Loznyuk, V.A. Marinov, D.G. Mitrofanov, N.V. Nassonova, M.Yu. Novoselova, S.V. Osipov, I.O. Oshnyakov, I.G. Pavlutkin, A.V. Solov'eva; Tyumenskiy neftyanoy nauchnyy tsentr, Neftyanaya kompaniya «Rosneft'» Tyumen': IPTs «Ekspress», 2024, 380 p. (In Russ.).
Burlin Yu.K., Plyusnina I.I. Fazovye perekhody kremnezema v neftenosnykh tolshchakh [Phase transitions of silica in oil-bearing strata]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Ser. 4. Geologiya, 2008, no. 3, pp. 24-31. (In Russ.). EDN: JVAPQN
Doroshenko A.A., Karymova Ya.O. Kharakteristika pustotnogo prostranstva opok senonskikh otlozheniy severa Zapadnoi Sibiri [Properties of voids in the Senonian gaize of the northern part of Western Siberia]. Ekspozitsiya Neft' Gaz, 2017, issue 6, pp. 23-27. (In Russ.). EDN: ZMZNFT
Gilmanov Ya.I. Otsenka emkostnogo prostranstva berezovskoy svity sovremennymi laboratornymi metodami [Void space assessment with modern laboratory tests. A case of Berezov Formation]. Vesti Gazovoy Nauki, 2021, no. 1 (46), pp. 170-175. (In Russ.). EDN: YDYMYN
Glukhov T.V. Noviy podhod k otsenke riskov I neopredelennostey parametrov reservuarov v geologorazvedochnom proizvodstve [A new approach to risk assessment and volumetric parameters uncertainty analysis for exploration process]. Ekspozitsiya Neft' Gaz, 2022, issue 6, pp. 34-38. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24412/2076-6785-2022-6-34-38
Glukhov T.V. Prognoz koefficienta gazonasyschennosti v otlozheniyakh plasta NB1 verkhnego mela v predelakh Nadym-Pur-Tazovskogo ergiona Zapadnoy Sibiri [A forecast of the gas saturation factor in the NB1 reservoir unit of Upper Cretaceous strata within the Nadym-Pur-Taz area of Western Siberia]. Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnykh zavedeniy. Neft' i gaz, 2024, no. 3, pp. 11-23. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31660/0445-0108-2024-3-11-23
Glukhov T.V., Ryazanova T.A., Novosyolova M.Yu. Otsenka generatsionnogo potentsiala kuznetsovskoi I berezovskoi svit Zapadnoy Sibiri [Assessment of the generation potential of the Kuznetsov and Berezov Formations of Western Siberia]. Novye tekhnologii - neftegazovomu regionu: materialy Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii studentov, aspirantov i molodykh uchenykh. Tyumen': TIU, 2020, pp. 20-22. (In Russ.). EDN: ULOGRI
Karymova Ya.O. Litologo-emkostnaya model' pustotnogo prostranstva nanokollektorov nizhneberezovskoy podsvity severa Zapadnoy Sibiri [Lithological-capacitive models of voids of nano-reservoirs in the Lower Berezov Subformation in the north of the Western Siberia]. Ekspozitsiya Neft' Gaz, 2018, issue 3, pp. 20-24. (In Russ.). EDN: XOGVSX
Novoselova M.Yu., Agalakov S.E., Kudamanov A.I. Kharakteristika verkhnemelovykh flyuidouporov Zapadnoy Sibiri [Characteristics of Upper Cretaceous seal rocks of Western Siberia]. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2020, no. 10 (346), pp. 35-46. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.30713/2413-5011-2020-10(346)-35-46
Oshnyakov I.O. Vydeleniye yeffektivnykh tolschin v opokovidnykh otlozheniyakh berezovskoy svity po dannym rasshirennogo kompleksa GIS I kernovykh issledovaniy [Effective thickness identification in Berezov Formation opoka-like strata from the data of a wider logs set and core analyses]. Karotazhnik, 2021, issue 314, pp. 110-120. (In Russ.). EDN: LKBFEN
Oshnyakov I.O., Khabarov A.V., Mitrofanov D.A., Loznyuk O.A. Izucheniye otlozheniy berezovskoy svity po dannym rasshirennogo kompleksa GIS I kernovykh issledovaniy na primere Kharampurskogo mestorogdeniya [Studying Berezov Formation from the data of an augmented logs set and a core analysis on the example of Kharampur field]. Karotazhnik, 2019, issue 300, pp. 103-117. (In Russ.). EDN: ZRVVQI
Polyakov A.A. Sistemnyy podkhod k analizu i snizheniyu riska pri poiskakh i razvedke mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza [Systematic approach to the risk reduction analysis during prospecting and exploration activity of oil and gas fields]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2016, vol. 11, no. 1, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/3/3_2016.pdf (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17353/2070-5379/3_2016
Polyakov А.А., Murzin Sh.M. Mezhdunarodnyy opyt analiza geologicheskikh riskov [International experience in geological risk analysis]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2012, vol. 7, no. 4, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/3/60_2012.pdf (In Russ.). EDN: PLHDHV
The CCOP guidelines for risk assessment of petroleum prospects, 2000, 35 p., available at: http://www.ccop.or.th/ppm/document/INWS1/INWS1DOC11_caluyong.pdf
Burlin Yu.K., Plyusnina I.I. Fazovye perekhody kremnezema v neftenosnykh tolshchakh [Phase transitions of silica in oil-bearing strata]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Ser. 4. Geologiya, 2008, no. 3, pp. 24-31. (In Russ.). EDN: JVAPQN
Doroshenko A.A., Karymova Ya.O. Kharakteristika pustotnogo prostranstva opok senonskikh otlozheniy severa Zapadnoi Sibiri [Properties of voids in the Senonian gaize of the northern part of Western Siberia]. Ekspozitsiya Neft' Gaz, 2017, issue 6, pp. 23-27. (In Russ.). EDN: ZMZNFT
Gilmanov Ya.I. Otsenka emkostnogo prostranstva berezovskoy svity sovremennymi laboratornymi metodami [Void space assessment with modern laboratory tests. A case of Berezov Formation]. Vesti Gazovoy Nauki, 2021, no. 1 (46), pp. 170-175. (In Russ.). EDN: YDYMYN
Glukhov T.V. Noviy podhod k otsenke riskov I neopredelennostey parametrov reservuarov v geologorazvedochnom proizvodstve [A new approach to risk assessment and volumetric parameters uncertainty analysis for exploration process]. Ekspozitsiya Neft' Gaz, 2022, issue 6, pp. 34-38. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24412/2076-6785-2022-6-34-38
Glukhov T.V. Prognoz koefficienta gazonasyschennosti v otlozheniyakh plasta NB1 verkhnego mela v predelakh Nadym-Pur-Tazovskogo ergiona Zapadnoy Sibiri [A forecast of the gas saturation factor in the NB1 reservoir unit of Upper Cretaceous strata within the Nadym-Pur-Taz area of Western Siberia]. Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnykh zavedeniy. Neft' i gaz, 2024, no. 3, pp. 11-23. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.31660/0445-0108-2024-3-11-23
Glukhov T.V., Ryazanova T.A., Novosyolova M.Yu. Otsenka generatsionnogo potentsiala kuznetsovskoi I berezovskoi svit Zapadnoy Sibiri [Assessment of the generation potential of the Kuznetsov and Berezov Formations of Western Siberia]. Novye tekhnologii - neftegazovomu regionu: materialy Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii studentov, aspirantov i molodykh uchenykh. Tyumen': TIU, 2020, pp. 20-22. (In Russ.). EDN: ULOGRI
Karymova Ya.O. Litologo-emkostnaya model' pustotnogo prostranstva nanokollektorov nizhneberezovskoy podsvity severa Zapadnoy Sibiri [Lithological-capacitive models of voids of nano-reservoirs in the Lower Berezov Subformation in the north of the Western Siberia]. Ekspozitsiya Neft' Gaz, 2018, issue 3, pp. 20-24. (In Russ.). EDN: XOGVSX
Novoselova M.Yu., Agalakov S.E., Kudamanov A.I. Kharakteristika verkhnemelovykh flyuidouporov Zapadnoy Sibiri [Characteristics of Upper Cretaceous seal rocks of Western Siberia]. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2020, no. 10 (346), pp. 35-46. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.30713/2413-5011-2020-10(346)-35-46
Oshnyakov I.O. Vydeleniye yeffektivnykh tolschin v opokovidnykh otlozheniyakh berezovskoy svity po dannym rasshirennogo kompleksa GIS I kernovykh issledovaniy [Effective thickness identification in Berezov Formation opoka-like strata from the data of a wider logs set and core analyses]. Karotazhnik, 2021, issue 314, pp. 110-120. (In Russ.). EDN: LKBFEN
Oshnyakov I.O., Khabarov A.V., Mitrofanov D.A., Loznyuk O.A. Izucheniye otlozheniy berezovskoy svity po dannym rasshirennogo kompleksa GIS I kernovykh issledovaniy na primere Kharampurskogo mestorogdeniya [Studying Berezov Formation from the data of an augmented logs set and a core analysis on the example of Kharampur field]. Karotazhnik, 2019, issue 300, pp. 103-117. (In Russ.). EDN: ZRVVQI
Polyakov A.A. Sistemnyy podkhod k analizu i snizheniyu riska pri poiskakh i razvedke mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza [Systematic approach to the risk reduction analysis during prospecting and exploration activity of oil and gas fields]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2016, vol. 11, no. 1, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/3/3_2016.pdf (In Russ.). DOI: 10.17353/2070-5379/3_2016
Polyakov А.А., Murzin Sh.M. Mezhdunarodnyy opyt analiza geologicheskikh riskov [International experience in geological risk analysis]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2012, vol. 7, no. 4, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/3/60_2012.pdf (In Russ.). EDN: PLHDHV
The CCOP guidelines for risk assessment of petroleum prospects, 2000, 35 p., available at: http://www.ccop.or.th/ppm/document/INWS1/INWS1DOC11_caluyong.pdf