Economy, information technology, resource management
| Article # 42_2025 | submitted on 09/02/2025 displayed on website on 11/10/2025 |
| 16 p. | Pustovoy D.A., Khafizov S.F. |
| Assessing long-term hydrocarbon perspective production in the Yamal petroleum province using a simulation approach | |
| This study presents a scenario-based forecasting model for oil and natural gas production in the Yamal petroleum province through 2050. The methodology is based on the integration of data from existing fields and simulation modeling of resource development. Actual production profiles obtained from design documentation were used for existing fields. For undiscovered fields, typical development profiles were constructed based on normalized historical data. Calculations were performed for three scenarios reflecting different rates of new facility commissioning. The results indicate that without active development of new resources, oil and gas production in the region will begin to decline as early as the 2030s. However, even a moderate expansion of geological exploration could smooth out the decline and maintain high production units until the mid-21st century. The presented model can be used in developing strategies for resource development in the Arctic zone and planning geological exploration activities. Keywords: hydrocarbon production forecast, field development profiles, simulation modeling, Yamal petroleum province. |
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| article citation | Pustovoy D.A., Khafizov S.F. Otsenka dolgosrochnykh perspektiv dobychi uglevodorodov v Yamal'skoy neftegazonosnoy oblasti s ispol'zovaniem imitatsionnogo podkhoda [Assessing long-term hydrocarbon perspective production in the Yamal petroleum province using a simulation approach]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2025, vol. 20, no. 4, available at: https://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2025/42_2025.html EDN: TRPZFJ |
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