Shatrov S.V.

shatrovsv@bashneft.ru



Graduated from Novosibirsk State University (2003); Heriot-Watt University (Scotland) - "MSc in Reservoir Evaluation and Management".
Post-graduate student of the Ufa State Oil Technical University (UGNTU).
Manager for new projects JSOC Bashneft".
Area of scientific interest: probabilistic assessment resources, production forecasts, technical and economic evaluation of exploration and production assets.
Author of 8 publications.
Geological simulation and issues of petroleum fields development
Section editor – PhD in geology and mineralogy Prischepa O.M.
Article # 39_2015 submitted on 08/07/2015 displayed on website on 10/15/2015
20 p.
pdf  Analytical calculation of the chance to discover oil or gas field for some complicated dependence models of geologic factors
The paper constitutes the second part of the research in which a set of analytical formulas was derived for probability calculations of an oil or gas field discovery. The formulas were derived by the author for an unlimited number of leads and target horizons with respect to the spatial interdependences of geologic factors across different targets (potential hydrocarbon accumulations). In the previously published first part of this research the basic mathematical model of dependence was considered whereas in the present paper analytical formulas are derived for advanced sophisticated mathematical models to account for a more realistic description of geological concepts.

Keywords: exploration, chance of success, geologic factors, probabilistic dependence.
article citation Shatrov S.V. Analiticheskie formuly rascheta veroyatnosti otkrytiya mestorozhdeniya dlya uslozhnennykh modeley zavisimosti geologicheskikh faktorov [Analytical calculation of the chance to discover oil or gas field for some complicated dependence models of geologic factors]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 4, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/11/39_2015.pdf
DOI https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/39_2015
References

   Bickel, E.B., Smith, J.E., Meyer, J.L. 2008. Modeling dependence among geologic risks in sequential exploration decisions. SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering. Vol. 11. Issue 2. P. 352- 361. SPE-102369-PA. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/102369-PA
   Delfiner, P. 2003. Modeling Dependencies Between Geologic Risks in Multiple Targets. SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering. Vol. 6. Issue 1. P. 57-64. SPE-82659-PA. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/82659-PA
   Delfiner, P. 2012. Intelligent exploration and appraisal program for a multiprospect development. SPE Economics & Management. Vol. 4, Issue 2. P. 106-114. SPE-146547-PA. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/146547-PA
   Kokolis, G.P., Litvak, B.L., Rapp, W.J., Wang, B. 1999. Scenario selection for valuation of multiple prospect opportunities: a Monte Carlo play simulation approach. SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, 21-23 March, Dallas, Texas. SPE-52977-MS. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/52977-MS
   Murtha, J.A. 1995. Estimating reserves and success for a prospect with geologically dependent layers. SPE Reservoir Engineering. Vol. 11. Issue 1. P. 37–42. SPE-30040-PA. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/30040-PA
   Salleh S.H., Rosales E., Flores de la Mota I. Influence of different probability based models on oil prospect exploration decision making: a case from southern Mexico. Revista Mexicana de CienciasGeologicas, v. 24, num. 3, 2007, p. 306-317.
   Shatrov S.V. Raschet veroyatnosti otkrytiya mestorozhdeniya s uchetom vzaimnoy zavisimosti parametrov v predelakh otsenivaemykh plastov i struktur [Сalculation of oil or gas field discovery probability, accounting the inner dependence of probability parameters]. Neftegazovaya geologiya. Teoriya i praktika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/13_2015



Geological simulation and issues of petroleum fields development
Section editor – PhD in geology and mineralogy Prischepa O.M.
Article # 13_2015 submitted on 03/04/2015 displayed on website on 04/07/2015
14 p.
pdf  Сalculation of oil or gas field discovery probability, accounting the inner dependence of probability parameters
A formula that can be used to calculate the find probability of an oil or gas field discovery has been derived. The traditional approach of geologic factors is used, the novelty being that the formula is valid for an unlimited number of leads and target objects, while the interdependences of geologic factors across different targets (potential oil or gas accumulations). Presented are just the basic mathematical model of geological dependences and correspondingly the basic resulting formula, while in fact similar results have been obtained by the author for more complicated cases as well.

Keywords: geologic factors, oil and gas discovery probability, oil and gas prospection and exploration.
article citation Shatrov S.V. Raschet veroyatnosti otkrytiya mestorozhdeniya s uchetom vzaimnoy zavisimosti parametrov v predelakh otsenivaemykh plastov i struktur [Сalculation of oil or gas field discovery probability, accounting the inner dependence of probability parameters]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/11/13_2015.pdf
DOI https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/13_2015
References

   Bickel J.E., Smith J.E., Meyer J.L. Modeling dependence among geologic risks in sequential exploration decisions. SPE, Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering, April 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/102369-PA
   Harbaugh J.W., Davis J.C., Wendenbourg J. Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs. Tarrytown, NW: Pergaman Press, 1995.
   Murtha J.A. Monte Carlo Simulation: Its Status and Future. Journal of Petroleum Technology, April 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/37932-JPT
   Otis R.M., Schneidermann N. A process for evaluating exploration prospects. AAPG Bulletin, vol. 81, no. 7 (July 1997), p. 1087–1109.
   Petroleum Geosciences Handbook. BP Exploration Company Limited, 1990.
   Polyakov А.А., Murzin Sh.M. Mezhdunarodnyy opyt analiza geologicheskikh riskov [International experience in geological risk analysis]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2012, vol. 7, no. 4, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/3/60_2012.pdf
   Rouz P.R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures]. AAPG, 2003.
   Salleh, S.H., Rosales E., Flores de la Mota I. Influence of different probability based models on oil prospect exploration decision making: a case from southern Mexico. Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Geologicas, vol. 24, num. 3, 2007, p. 306-317.
   Shatrov S.V. Veroyatnostnaya otsenka resursov nefti bloka 12 v Irake [Probabilistic evaluation of oil resources on block 12, Iraq]. Neftyanoe khozyaystvo, 2013, no. 4.
   The CCOP Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Petroleum Prospects. CCOP, 2011.